The next few (possibly several) years in the NHL is going to be interested. The salary cap is one of the many things that has been effected by the pandemic. The salary cap will remain the same at $81.5 million for the next couple years at the minimum. The NHL will need to surpass $3.3 billion in hockey related revenue (HRR) before the cap can increase.
A flat cap will become a problem for a lot of teams. Although the Avs aren’t necessarily one of those teams, at least not yet anyway, the Avs will have to be smart with how they hand out money in the coming months
Let’s take a look forward at who might be on the Avalanche 23 man roster come the start of the regular season. Let’s take a look at their forward corp first.
Gabriel Landeskog – Nathan MacKinnon – Mikko Rantanen
? – Nazem Kadri – ?
? – JT Compher – Joonas Donskoi
? – PE Bellemare – Matt Calvert
There are 4 question marks here indicating unknowns. The players listed above already have contracts for next season. Of course, let’s assume none of these guys get moved in potential trades in the off-season.
But before we look ahead to possible free agent acquisitions, let’s look at the Avs pending free agents (both UFAs and RFAs). Also we have to keep in mind, the Avs have $22.36 million in cap space for next season. The Avs have some key guys who need contracts for next season which will eat up some of that.
Matt Nieto and Vlad Namestikov are pending unrestricted free agents (UFAs). I don’t expect either to be back as they will become a luxary that the Avs won’t be able to afford going forward.
Andre Burakovsky, Tyson Jost, Valeri Nichushkin and Vlad Kamenev are restricted free agents (RFAs), meaning the Avs own their rights if they qualify them and have exclusive matching rights.
The Avs also have prospects chomping at the bit to make the NHL roster. Those players include Martin Kaut, Shane Bowers and Logan O’Connor.
If I’m the Avs, Burakovsky and Jost are brought back. Let Nichushkin walk. I would bring back Kamenev as a 13th forward but there’s already rumors swirling about him playing in Russia next season.
With Burakovsky and Jost taking up 2 of the 4 open slots on the above roster, that leaves 2 spots remaining. I would bring up Martin Kaut for full time duties and utilize him on the 3rd line. The Avs didn’t include Kaut on their return to play roster because they wanted to preserve Kaut‘s entry level contract (ELC). If Kaut would have played one more game, it would have burned the first year off his ELC. This means Kaut will still have 3 years remaining on the contract. The Avs will start to become real tight against the cap starting next summer when Gabriel Landeskog, Cale Makar and Philipp Grubauer need new contracts. Kaut on the cheap rookie contract for 3 more years will be highly useful for the Avs.
Shane Bowers can use another year to develop in the minors. He doesn’t need to be rushed. An extra year of seasoning couldn’t hurt. Logan O’Connor could be used as the 13th forward. But who knows, the Avs could find another cheap gem like they did last summer when signing Valeri Nichushkin. But I’m going to assume they use O’Connor.
So with these moves, the Avs forward lineup looks like this:
Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen
Burakovsky – Kadri – ?
Donskoi – Compher – Kaut
Jost – Bellemare – Calvert
extra: O’Connor
The Colorado Avalanche have roughly $22.36 million in cap space for next season according to CapFriendly. Martin Kaut and Logan O’Connor accounts for a combined cap hit of roughly $1.82 million. But the cap hit doesn’t take into account performance bonuses for each player. If both players hit their performance bonuses, that would take on additional $680k. There cap hit would then be $2.5 million combined. (Performance bonuses count towards the cap, although there is a percentage that a team is allowed to go over the cap in order to pay bonuses).
The other two forwards I think the Avs are bringing back are Andrei Burakovsky and Tyson Jost. These guys need new contracts so this is hard to predict their cap hit. Jost won’t be expensive. He’s coming off a 23 point season which was proceeded by a 26 point campaign. Probably in the $2 million range. Can’t see him getting any more. 2 years ago, the Avs signed Matt Nieto (who was a RFA) to a 2 year contract at a cap hit of $1.975 million. Nieto was coming off a season where he scored 15 goals and 26 points. Similar production and next year Jost is essentially taking Nieto‘s role. The precedent is there. Let’s assume Jost‘s cap hit is $1.975 million.
Andrei Burakovsky on the other hand will be much more expensive. He’s coming off a contract paying him $3.25 million after a career year in which he set career highs in goals (20), assists (25) and points (45). He was also 3rd on the Avs in goals and points. I would nab Burakovsky in the $4.75-$5 million range. Probably a 3 or a 4 year deal I would imagine.
Also something to consider is how the covid pandemic is going to impact contracts going forward. How much money will ownership want to commit. Also with a flat salary cap of $81.5 for the next few years, general managers will have to penny pinch even more.
So with that in consideration, is $5 million cap hit for Burakovsky too much, about right, or perhaps not enough? For this article’s sake, let’s just say $5 million. Adding up the totals of the new contracts, it would take up $8.795 million of the $22.36 million cap space (not including performance bonuses).
That would leave roughly $13.565 in cap space. Unfortunately, the Avs still have free agent d-men to worry about too.
? – Makar
Girard – Johnson
Cole – Timmins
Above are the d-men the Avs have under contract for next season. I have Timmins listed as I think he’s ready for full time NHL duties. Whether the Avs actually want this is still up in the air but I think they will.
The Avs have 2 UFAs and 2 RFAs on their blueline. Their UFAs are Mark Barberio and Kevin Connauton. Barberio is heading overseas next season so he’s already gone. Connauton could return as depth d-man but it’s unclear if either side wants this. So I expect him to be gone as well.
That leaves their 2 RFAs. Ryan Graves and Nikita Zadorov. The way I see it, one of these guys are going to be chosen in the expansion draft next summer if both remain with the Avs next season. But I think the Avs should bring both guys back.
Zadorov is currently coming off a contract paying him $3.2 million. He’s been getting increasingly more expensive with every contract. I don’t expect it to change but he’s not in for a huge raise either. I could see $3.5 million being about right, although expensive for the Avs.
Ryan Graves on the other hand is in for a big raise. He’s currently getting paid $735k. He’s coming off a season where’s been paired with Cale Makar, logging big minutes, led the NHL in plus/minus and had a career year in all offensive categories with 9 goals and 26 points in 69 games.
Graves‘ negotiations is going to be interesting and he has arbitration rights. He’s going to get at least 2 years from the Avs. My guessing is in the $4 million range. For the article’s sake, let’s assume Graves will be at a cap hit of $4.5 million. Whether that’s not enough or too much, let’s just assume.
So, if you take in the cap hits of Zadorov, Graves, and Timmins that would equal out to $8.95 million. Which would leave the Avs with roughly $4.6 million in cap space. Considering Cale Makar, Gabriel Landeskog and Philipp Grubauer need new contracts next summer, the Avs will be tight up against the cap real soon.
What should the Avs do to get cap space to alleviate some pressure? Especially if they want to add a top 6 forward via free agency this summer.
I would trade Ian Cole. Cole, 31 years old, is entering into his final year of his contract at a cap hit of $4.25 million. The Avs like Cole for a lot of reasons. His leadership, his Stanley Cup resume, penalty killing, etc. Cole does a lot that goes unnoticed. But considering his age and contract, he might need to be moved.
If the Avs could move his entire contract for a draft pick that would help in a big way. In the case they do move his entire contract for a draft pick, the Avs would have a cap space of $8.85 million. That would be plenty of money to add a top 6 forward via free agency.
Who would be my choice to bring in? Sure, it would be fun to say Taylor Hall. But that’s not my pick. Out of all the pending free agents, I would love for the Avs to add Tyler Toffoli. I think he would be the perfect fit on the team’s second line with Nazem Kadri. He’s a right shot. He won a Stanley Cup. Won’t be as expensive as Taylor Hall. He’s scored 30 goals once. He’s a four time 20 goal scorer. Just a perfect fit for the Avs in so many ways.
So this is how I see the Avalanche roster for next season.
Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen
Burakovsky – Kadri – Toffoli
Donskoi – Compher – Kaut
Jost – Bellemare – Calvert
ex: O’Connor
Graves – Makar
Girard – Timmins
Zadorov – Johnson
ex: Lindholm
Grubauer – Francouz
So what do you think?
Avalanche Avenue 